Torsten Slok of Deutsche Bank Research, showed me a slide deck he prepared for evaluating the US economy. Here are a few fascinating graphs. Sorry, the slide deck isn’t public – you have to pay DB for this kind of art!
Most hilariously, “forward guidance” seems to be getting harder.
Torsten also makes the case that interest rates are much below the Fed’s usual “Taylor rule.” Implicitly, it’s supply now not “demand.” The market of people who are working looks recovered, the large number of people out of the labor force is the problem, and addressing that is, at least, a deviation from usual policy.
No editorial here, I just thought the graphs were really interesting. Thanks to Torsten for allowing me to post them.